Forecast update: 11 July 2014

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Continue reading Forecast update: 11 July 2014

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Why is the 2015 general election forecast trending?

A few people have asked me this question about my forecast. The trends are definitely there as you can see from the graphs below. But since they are well within the very broad prediction intervals, there is a danger of reading too much into them.¬†Certainly we are far from having enough information to say the model isn’t working well for this electoral cycle. Continue reading Why is the 2015 general election forecast trending?