Elections Etc

Election Day forecast

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Good morning! As the first votes are cast, our final forecast makes Ed Miliband the slight favourite to lead the next government, with a 58% chance to David Cameron’s 42%.

There’s no change in our polling forecast: the Tories still lead by 1 point, 34%–33%, and we make them clear favourites to win the most votes, with a 77% chance.

However, we’ve identified more constituency-level effects that change how our model expects those votes to translate into seats. In particular, the Tories are doing less well to UKIP on the east coast, and to the Lib Dems in LD/Con incumbent seats. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are suffering more and Labour gaining more in LD/Lab seats, so there’s little net change for the Lib Dems. The overall effect is to move our seats forecast slightly away from the Tories and towards Labour.

As a result, the Tories’ chances of winning the most seats are down to 68%, and their chances of a majority have fallen to just 6%. (Labour’s haven’t improved much though. They’re still less than 0.5%.) A hung parliament looks more likely than ever, with a 94% chance.

Our central forecast is now for the Tories to win 285 seats, leaving them 38 short of a majority. Labour are 23 behind, on 262, while the SNP get 53 and the Lib Dems 25. That would leave the Tories unable to form a majority grouping (even Con+LD+DUP+UKIP would be one short, on 322), and Labour reliant on the SNP and either the Lib Dems or all the other left-wing MPs.

We’ll find out soon!

 

Date of forecast: 7 May 2015
Days till the election: It’s today! (Go vote!)

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 34%
Lab: 33%
LD: 9%
UKIP: 13%
Others: 11%

Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35% (31% – 39%)
Lab: 32% (28% – 36%)
LD: 10% (7% – 14%)
UKIP: 12% (8% – 16%)
Others: 11% (9% – 12%)

Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 48% (44% – 52%)
Labour: 27% (23% – 31%)

Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 285 (245 – 326)
Lab: 262 (223 – 300)
LD: 25 (17 – 33)
SNP: 53 (45 – 57)
PC: 3 (2 – 3)
UKIP: 3 (3 – 4)
Grn: 1
Other: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities.)

Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 38
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)

Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 77%
Lab most votes: 23%

Con most seats: 68%
Lab most seats: 32%

Hung Parliament: 94%
… with Con largest: 62%
… with Lab largest: 32%

Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)

Con majority: 6%
Con+DUP: 5%
Con+LD: 16%
Con+LD+DUP: 14%
Con largest, Lab+SNP+DUP+other left maj: 5%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP+other left maj: 15%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP maj: 6%
Lab largest, Lab+SNP maj: 8%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 9%
Lab+LD+DUP: 7%
Lab+LD: 7%
Lab+DUP: 1%
Lab majority: 0%

(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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