Previous posts at this blog introduce my long-range general election forecasting model, which is updated on Fridays here.
Thus far I haven’t published a forecast of the UKIP share of vote because the party hasn’t been competing in general elections for long enough to build a proper statistical regression model of the relationship between their support in the polls and their votes at elections, as for the three main parties. Continue reading A long range forecast for the UKIP share of the vote at the 2015 general election
I have revised my 2015 forecasting methodology. There is a new working paper here. The old one from October 2013 is still here, and there are past blog posts here and here that provide more background. The current forecast is below and will be updated weekly here. Continue reading Revised long-range forecasting method for a 2015 British General Election
I’ve just started publishing a forecast from a polls based method for forecasting the next general election here. I’m hoping to update the forecast weekly. Continue reading A long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes
Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year’s local elections Labour suffered at least as much. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year
With 23% on the PNS, and 147 seats, UKIP did shockingly well in this year’s local elections. Why? Continue reading Local Elections 2013: Why did UKIP do so well?