by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick
A month ago we issued our first forecast for the EU membership referendum on 23rd June 2016. Based on an analysis of referendums in the UK and on the EU outside the UK, and on vote intention opinion polls we forecast that Remain had an 87% chance of winning, and that Remain would get 58% of the vote, plus or minus 14. This was in part based on our polling average (excluding Don’t Knows) of 55% for Remain on 11th March.
Our current forecast suggests the contest is a fair bit closer. Our polling average now puts Remain on 52%. We now give Remain a 73% chance of winning and estimate that the Remain share of the vote will be 54% plus or minus 13 points.
The key change here is the drop from 55% to 52% Remain in the polling average. The main reasons for this are as much or more methodological than substantive. Continue reading Second forecast for the Brexit referendum