I have revised my 2015 forecasting methodology. There is a new working paper here. The old one from October 2013 is still here, and there are past blog posts here and here that provide more background. The current forecast is below and will be updated weekly here. Continue reading Revised long-range forecasting method for a 2015 British General Election
Thanks for all the various comments on my initial post about long-range forecasting from historical polls and votes relationship.
Here are some initial responses to comments and questions that have been made on Twitter and on the blog. Continue reading Initial responses to comments so far on the long-range election forecasting post
I’ve just started publishing a forecast from a polls based method for forecasting the next general election here. I’m hoping to update the forecast weekly. Continue reading A long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections. Continue reading Local elections vote share (PNS) and general election vote intention
While some ask what local election results tell us about the state of the parties and prospects for the next general election, it is also important to consider how national party popularity affects the fortunes of candidates in local government elections. Local elections are often said to be about local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national level. Continue reading What do the polls tell us about local election results?