In which Theresa May calls a referendum despite expecting to lose her job

By Stephen Fisher.

The collective intelligence of political journalists suggests that the House of Commons is likely to vote against the prime minister’s Brexit deal when it comes to a “meaningful vote” in December. Supposing this happens, what next?

The UK would, by legal default, be heading towards a no-deal Brexit. Although the government would have till mid-January to say how it intended to proceed, Mrs May would most likely want to move quickly, given the risk of a no-confidence vote from both inside and outside her party.

Waiting to see if a market crash sways MPs is unlikely to be an option. If the outcome of the parliamentary vote is as clear as many commentators suggest it will be, then the markets will have already priced it in. That is not to say that the markets will assume failure of the meaningful vote automatically means a no-deal Brexit, just that the markets are unlikely to move much if the outcome is as is widely anticipated.

Simply announcing that she will seek further concessions from Brussels would be unpersuasive. What makes her deal unpopular with the DUP and many of her backbenchers are structural features that were already much discussed. The EU are unlikely to be willing to make sufficient concessions, especially not on the current timescale. Substantial further negotiations would probably require an extension to the Article 50 process, which the EU have said would only be granted if there was a “fundamental change” in the political situation in the UK. (A referendum would be such a change.) What’s more, MPs are unlikely to think that the Theresa May would be the best person to achieve a better deal given they are unhappy with her previous efforts.

The prime minister has said that a no-deal Brexit would be “a bad outcome for the UK”, and also that she believes, with her “head and heart” and “every fibre of her body”, that the deal is, “in the best interests of our entire United Kingdom.” If this is really how she feels she should want to ask the people to back her deal in a referendum to force parliament’s hand. May has previously ruled out a referendum, but she also ruled out a general election in 2017 and called one anyway.

Continue reading In which Theresa May calls a referendum despite expecting to lose her job

Advertisements

Forecasts for the US Midterm Elections 2018

By Stephen Fisher.

The most striking thing about the forecasts for today’s midterm elections in the United States is that they have been much less talked of in the media than in previous campaigns. This is partly because in 2016 most of the forecasters put very high probabilities (90%+) on Hilary Clinton winning the presidency. (See here for a post-mortem.)

This post reviews the main statistical model based forecasts for the US House and Senate, with some discussion of the methodology and comparison with other forecasts. Overall, and as usual, there is not much variation between the forecasters in their central forecasts. They all point to the Democrats taking control of the house and the Republican retaining control of the Senate. The striking exception is a Gallup poll suggesting 50% think the Republicans will retain control of the House and only 44% think the Democrats will win it.

Despite the forecasts differing from the expectations of the American people, the forecasts appear to have been widely accepted in the media. So much so that some journalists suggest it will be a vindication of Donald Trump if Republicans maintain control of the House. However, if that happens it will most likely be despite a clear lead for the Democrats in the popular vote. In which case, it would be the electoral system, not Trump, that thwarts the Democrats. Meanwhile, if there are net Republican gains in the Senate it will be primarily because the Democrats are defending a big haul from 2012.

House forecasts

As James Campbell has noted, in all but three midterm elections since 1900 the President’s party has lost seats. Since 1950 the average loss has been 24 seats. The Democrats need to make net gains of 23 or more to take control.

Continue reading Forecasts for the US Midterm Elections 2018