By Stephen Fisher.
Updated 23:00 on 1st May to include a poll-based forecast I did not previously have access to, and to clarify figures for the Rallings and Thrasher local by-election model based forecast.
My predictions for this week’s bumper crop of English council elections are given in Table 1 below, along with those of others. The changes are relative to (sometimes notional) results for 2015 when the seats were last fought.
Table 1. Forecasts for English local election net seat changes 2019
Forecast | Range | R&T (local by-election model) | R&T (local vote intention poll) | Hayward | |
Con | -700 | -90 to -1,300 | -405 | -1,100 | -800 |
Lab | +590 | +200 to +990 | +150 | +840 | +300 |
LD | +350 | -10 to +720 | +400 | +170 | +500 |
R&T refers to Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Their figures are, I’m told, in the hard copy version of their Sunday Times article. (They differ slightly from those on Sophy Ridge on Sunday and others being attributed to them on Twitter.) Their local by-election model takes the results of recent local by-elections to predict the National Equivalent Vote (NEV) and projects the implied NEV changes since 2015 at the ward level (perhaps using notional results where required.) The local-election vote-intention poll Rallings and Thrasher used was conducted by Opinium which had the following shares of the vote: Con 28, Lab 36, LD 10, UKIP 9. That poll-based forecast is also mentioned in this excellent blog on the background to the local elections, which includes great data visualisation.
Continue reading Forecasting Local Election Net Seat Gains/Losses 2019