by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick
As online and telephone polls for the EU referendum continue to tell different stories about the contest, there is increasing debate about the relative merits of each method (e.g. here, here and here). Much of this debate is focused on which of the two modes is more accurate. Does Remain have a comfortable lead, as phone polls suggest, or is it too close to call, as the online polls indicate? Continue reading How good are referendum polls in the UK?
Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.
Our latest forecast based on combining other forecasts shows a big increase in the probability that Remain will win the referendum, from 70.5% last week to 76.1% today. Intriguingly this has only been accompanied by a small increase in the forecast share of the vote for Remain, from 53.8% in the last forecast to 54.3%.
| Remain % share | Leave % share | Probability Remain wins | |
| Betting markets | 54.3 | 45.7 | 80.2 |
| Prediction markets | 79.1 | ||
| Citizen forecasts | 68.0 | ||
| Expert forecasts | 56.0 | 44.0 | |
| Volunteer forecasts | 54.3 | 45.7 | 76.3 |
| Polls | 53.7 | 46.3 | 72.7 |
| Poll based models | 55.8 | 44.2 | 80.7 |
| Non-poll based models | 51.8 | 48.2 | |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 54.3 | 45.7 | 76.1 |
(Individual forecasts collected in the evening of 24th May 2016.) Continue reading EU referendum Combined Forecast Update
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.
There has been a small shift towards Remain in the polls over the last two weeks. Excluding Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has moved from 52% on 10th May to 53% now. This figure is based on the most recent polls from each of seven companies: one from each but two from ICM (one by phone and one conducted online). The Remain share has been adjusted down by 2.15 points for telephone polls and up by the same amount for online polls to account for the relatively stable gap between these different methods in the levels of support they tend to give the two sides.
Using the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere, as discussed here, our latest forecast is for Remain to win 55% of the vote in a month’s time. The 95% prediction interval surrounding this estimate has narrowed very slightly to ±12.5 points. So we are forecasting that Remain will win between 43% and 68% of the vote.
Values closer to the middle of this range are more likely. Overall the probability that the Remain vote will be larger than the Leave vote is now 79%, up from 72% two weeks ago.
Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.
This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again very little change in the average forecast share of the vote, the average probability of a Remain win, or in any of the individual components of the forecast.
| Share of the vote | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| Betting markets | 54.4 | 45.6 |
| Polls | 52.1 | 47.9 |
| Expert forecasts | 56.0 | 44.0 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 54.2 | 45.8 |
| Poll based models | 54.6 | 45.4 |
| Non-poll based models | 51.8 | 48.2 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 53.8 | 46.2 |
| Probability that Remain wins | |
|---|---|
| Citizen forecasts | 68.2 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 73.7 |
| Prediction markets | 71.0 |
| Betting markets | 73.5 |
| Polls | 63.0 |
| Poll based models | 73.9 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 70.5 |
Individual forecasts collected 17th May 2016. Continue reading Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast
Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.
This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again almost no change in the average forecast share of the vote or the average probability of a Remain win.
| Share of the vote | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| Betting markets | 54.3 | 45.7 |
| Polls | 51.3 | 48.7 |
| Expert forecasts | 56.0 | 44.0 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 54.3 | 45.7 |
| Poll based models | 55.0 | 45.0 |
| Non-poll based models | 52.0 | 48.0 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 53.8 | 46.2 |
| Probability that Remain wins | |
|---|---|
| Citizen forecasts | 68.5 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 74.0 |
| Prediction markets | 69.0 |
| Betting markets | 71.8 |
| Polls | 62.5 |
| Poll based models | 74.9 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 69.8 |
Individual forecasts collected 10th May 2016. Continue reading Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.
We have published two previous forecasts of the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, which are based on current vote intention opinion polls for this referendum and on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere. The main ideas behind this approach are set out here. This post offers an update. Continue reading An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast
by Stephen Fisher.
Extrapolating the results of yesterday’s local elections to those parts of Britain that did not have local elections produces a GB share of the vote of Con 30, Lab 31, LD 15, UKIP 12, and Others 12. Continue reading BBC Projected National Share (PNS) of the vote 2016
by Stephen Fisher
In the Scottish Parliament elections yesterday the SNP lost 6 seats and their majority because their share of the list vote fell by 2 points. They ended up with 49% of the seats from 42% of the vote. Meanwhile, at the Welsh Assembly elections Labour’s vote share dropped by 5.4% points but they lost just one seat, finishing with 48.3% of the seats from just 31.5% of the vote.
Why was the Welsh system so much more generous to Labour than the Scottish system was to the SNP? Continue reading How did Labour hold up so well in Wales?
by Stephen Fisher.
The SNP went into yesterday’s Scottish Parliament elections defending a majority of 9, and with many expecting that they would manage to achieve another majority on the strength of their performance in the constituencies alone.
Indeed the SNP managed to improve on their 45.4% share of the constituency vote in 2011, with 46.5% this year. Moreover, Labour dropped from 31.7% in 2011 to 22.6%. This represents a Lab to SNP swing of 5%, which should have been enough for them to take 13 seats from Labour. That number, on top of the 53 constituencies they won in 2011 would have yielded the SNP 66 constituencies on a uniform swing, a majority of 3 before looking at the regional list seats.
What went wrong for the SNP then? Continue reading How did the SNP lose their majority in Scotland?
by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher
Much of the speculation about what might happen in the English local elections tomorrow has focused on how many seats each party – and especially Labour – could or should gain or lose. Indeed, we can expect many a judgement to be cast on Friday on the basis of this evidence. However, given that these elections are held under first past the post, seats won and lost can be a poor guide to how well a party has done in the ballot box. A party whose vote has fallen less than that of their principal rivals may gain seats even though it has lost votes. A third party whose vote is geographically spread may make a substantial advance in votes yet reap little reward on terms of seats. Meanwhile, even if these issues do not arise, seats won and lost only provide an indication of whether a party has lost or gained ground as compared with when the seats up for grabs were last contested – which (as this year) is usually four years ago. Continue reading Calculating the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2015 and 2016
Elections Etc 