By Stephen Fisher, 6th May 2022.
The BBC Projected National Share (PNS) of the local election vote 2022 is Con 30, Lab 35, LD 19, Others 16.
There is an explainer of the methodology at https://electionsetc.com/2022/05/04/understanding-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2022/.
Historically, party performance in local elections has followed a similar pattern of change over time to the general-election vote-intention opinion polls, as shown the graph below.
Changes in the PNS this year are broadly in line with changes in the polls relative to both 2018 and 2021. The Conservatives are down 7 in the polls since both 2018 and 2021, and down 5 and 6 points respectively in the PNS. Labour are at the same level in the polls and PNS as they were in 2018, but up 4 points in the polls and 6 points in the PNS since 2021.
In both the polls and the PNS the two parties were tied in 2018. After Boris Johnson became PM the Conservatives achieved a lead that won them the 2019 general election and lasted through to 2021. Following partygate and various other controversies, that lead has been reversed. This week’s local elections essentially confirmed the message from the polls that Labour are now ahead.
In recent years the Liberal Democrats have revived their tendency to do much better in local elections than they do in general election vote intention polls. That pattern was established in the 1980s with the Liberal Alliance, but ended after the Lib Dems joined the coalition in 2010. This year the party continued its post-coalition revival. They are up 2 or 3 points relative to both 2018 and 2021, in both the PNS and the polls.
Its not such a consistent pattern with respect to other baselines.
Indications from the local elections for the next general election?
The Projected House of Commons’ seats from the PNS (with changes from the 2019 general election) is
Con 253 (-112)
Lab 291 (+88)
LD 31 (+20)
Others 75 (+4)
The Projected House of Commons takes into account differences in local and general election voting on recent occasions when the two kinds of election have been on the same day.Continue reading Local elections Projected National Share (PNS) of the vote 2022