Forecast update: 28 April 2015

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Implications of Clegg ruling out arrangements with either the SNP or UKIP

Stephen Fisher, 25th April 2015

Nick Clegg yesterday ruled out the Liberal Democrats going into coalition with Labour if it depended on “life support” from the SNP. The FT article quotes Clegg as saying:

“I totally rule out any arrangements with the SNP — in the same way I rule out any arrangements with Ukip — because there is no meeting point for me with one party that basically wants to pull our country to bits and another party that wants us to pull out of the EU,” Mr Clegg said. “I would never recommend to the Liberal Democrats that we help establish a government which is basically on a life support system, where Alex Salmond could pull the plug any time he wants. No, no, no.” Continue reading Implications of Clegg ruling out arrangements with either the SNP or UKIP

Which way would the Lib Dems go?

Our model now gives a 7% chance that the Conservatives will be the largest party but could only form a majority with the support of all of the Lib Dems, the DUP and UKIP. But the Lib Dems would also be able to form a majority with Labour and the SNP. In our central forecast, the Tory-led group would have 325 seats while the Labour-led group would have 338. Continue reading Which way would the Lib Dems go?

Arguments and prospects for tactical voting

by Stephen Fisher

It has been reported that David Cameron called for tactical voting in The Sunday Times today (e.g. here and here). He didn’t. What he said was:

“So if you are considering voting Ukip or Lib Dem, I urge you to think of the chaos of a weak Ed Miliband, propped up by Nicola Sturgeon demanding ever more borrowing and more taxes. Only a Conservative vote in your local constituency will keep Ed Miliband and the SNP out and secure Britain’s future.”

This is a blanket call for all UKIP and Lib Dem supporters to vote Tory. Not only is there nothing tactical in this, but the final claim is both false and contrary to the logic of traditional tactical voting. Continue reading Arguments and prospects for tactical voting