By Stephen Fisher, 7th February 2025
The government is only seven months old. Nonetheless, opinion polls show that Labour support has dropped by massive 9 points from the modest 35 per cent of the GB vote they achieved at last year’s general election. Now Labour, Reform, and the Conservatives are roughly level pegging in the mid-20’s.
Some commentators have suggested we should not take opinion polling seriously so early in the election cycle. Afterall the next election does not need to be before August 2029. Plenty of time for things to change?
No. The combination of dire economic indicators, forecasts, and opinion polls, in light of British electoral history, suggests Labour are (perhaps unfairly) already at high risk of losing their majority at the next election. Once down heavily due to an economic crisis, governments rarely win elections; still less prime ministers.
Here are some reasons why Labour, and particularly Keir Starmer, should be seriously concerned.
No government has suffered even close to a 9-point drop from their general election share within their first year and gone on to win re-election. Thatcher’s government dropped by 10 points within a year and a half of the 1979 election because of the 1980-1 recession. She was on course to lose the next election; only winning because of the Falklands war.
Continue reading Why Labour are already at high risk of losing the next election
Elections Etc 