By Stephen Fisher, 30th April 2025.
In recent years, changes in vote-intention opinion polls have generally provided a reasonable guide to headline gains and losses at local elections. Most of the seats up this year were last fought in 2021. Table 1 shows how party support in the opinion polls has changed since then. Reform UK are ahead, just, and never before in England has vote intention been so evenly divided between five parties.
Table 1. Opinion poll changes from 2021 locals to 2025 locals (GB)
| % | 2021 polls | 2025 polls | Change |
| Con | 41 | 23 | -18 |
| Lab | 36 | 24 | -12 |
| LD | 7 | 13 | +6 |
| Reform | 2 | 25 | +23 |
| Green | 5 | 9 | +4 |
How might these changes translate into net changes in local council seats?
Continue reading Local election seat projections for 2025
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