All posts by electionsetc

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

Forecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based method

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official campaigns have resumed.

Our polling average now has Remain at 49% after setting aside Don’t Knows.

From this we forecast Remain to get 50% of the vote.

The 95% prediction interval is only a little narrower than ±12 points. So Remain are forecast to win between 39% and 62% of the vote.

The probability that Remain will win the referendum is now 52%.

The methods behind our forecast

The method behind this forecast is based on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere, as discussed here.

Our polling average is constructed by taking the most recent poll from each company within the last two weeks. If a company uses both phone and online modes then both the most recent phone poll and most recent online poll are used. This applies to BMG, ICM and ORB this week. The current average is based on the results of twelve polls from nine companies, of which six were conducted by phone and six online. All polls are adjusted to account for the tendency for phone polls to be more favourable to Remain. This is done by adding 1.75 to the Remain share for online polls and subtracting the same amount for phone polls.

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

A 50:50 forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

Our forecast has taken a dramatic turn. Last week our polling average had Remain at 51% after setting aside Don’t Knows. It has this week dropped a further two points to 49%. This means Leave is ahead in our polling average for the first time, with 51%.

The forecast share of the vote for Remain has correspondingly dropped from 53% to slightly over 50%.

The 95% prediction interval is still ±12 points. So we are now forecasting that both Leave and Remain will win between 38% and 62% of the vote.

The probability that Remain will win the referendum has fallen from 68% last week to just 51% this week. Continue reading A 50:50 forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method →

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast Update

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

Remain have continued their gentle slide in the polls. Last week our polling average saw Remain drop from 53% to 52%. Now they are on 51% after setting aside Don’t Knows.

The further one-point drop in our polling average has produced a one-point drop in the forecast share of the vote for Remain, from 54% to 53%.

The 95% prediction interval is still ±12 points. We are now forecasting that Remain will win between 40% and 65% of the vote.

The probability that Remain will win the referendum is now down to 68%.

The method behind this forecast is based on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere, as discussed here.

Our polling average is constructed by taking the most recent poll from each company within the last two weeks. If a company uses both phone and online modes then both the most recent phone poll and most recent online poll are used. This applies just to ICM this week. The current average is based on the results of eight polls from seven companies, of which three were conducted by phone and five online. All polls are adjusted to account for the tendency for phone polls to be more favourable to Remain. This is done by adding 2.2 to the Remain share for online polls and subtracting the same amount for phone polls.

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

Forecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based Method

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

The small shift towards Remain in the polls that we observed last week has been reversed. Setting aside Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has dropped back from 53% to 52%. Despite there being little difference between the headline figures for yesterday’s ICM phone and online polls, our estimate (and corresponding adjustment) for the typical difference between the two modes of interviewing has barely changed.

The one-point drop in our polling average has led to a corresponding one-point drop in the forecast share of the vote for Remain, from 55% to 54%. The 95% prediction interval surrounding this estimate has again narrowed very slightly to ±12 points. So we are now forecasting that Remain will win between 42% and 66% of the vote.

Overall the probability that the Remain vote will be larger than the Leave vote has dropped from 79% last week to 73% now. Continue reading Forecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based Method →

EU referendum, Referendums

How good are referendum polls in the UK?

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick

As online and telephone polls for the EU referendum continue to tell different stories about the contest, there is increasing debate about the relative merits of each method (e.g. here, here and here). Much of this debate is focused on which of the two modes is more accurate. Does Remain have a comfortable lead, as phone polls suggest, or is it too close to call, as the online polls indicate? Continue reading How good are referendum polls in the UK? →

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

The Historical Referendums and Polls based forecast, one month out

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

There has been a small shift towards Remain in the polls over the last two weeks. Excluding Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has moved from 52% on 10th May to 53% now. This figure is based on the most recent polls from each of seven companies: one from each but two from ICM (one by phone and one conducted online). The Remain share has been adjusted down by 2.15 points for telephone polls and up by the same amount for online polls to account for the relatively stable gap between these different methods in the levels of support they tend to give the two sides.

Using the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere, as discussed here, our latest forecast is for Remain to win 55% of the vote in a month’s time. The 95% prediction interval surrounding this estimate has narrowed very slightly to ±12.5 points. So we are forecasting that Remain will win between 43% and 68% of the vote.

Values closer to the middle of this range are more likely. Overall the probability that the Remain vote will be larger than the Leave vote is now 79%, up from 72% two weeks ago.

EU referendum, Forecast updates, Historical & polls based forecast

An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast

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by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

We have published two previous forecasts of the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, which are based on current vote intention opinion polls for this referendum and on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere. The main ideas behind this approach are set out here. This post offers an update. Continue reading An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast →

Wales

How did Labour hold up so well in Wales?

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by Stephen Fisher

In the Scottish Parliament elections yesterday the SNP lost 6 seats and their majority because their share of the list vote fell by 2 points. They ended up with 49% of the seats from 42% of the vote. Meanwhile, at the Welsh Assembly elections Labour’s vote share dropped by 5.4% points but they lost just one seat, finishing with 48.3% of the seats from just 31.5% of the vote.

Why was the Welsh system so much more generous to Labour than the Scottish system was to the SNP? Continue reading How did Labour hold up so well in Wales? →

Scotland

How did the SNP lose their majority in Scotland?

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by Stephen Fisher.

The SNP went into yesterday’s Scottish Parliament elections defending a majority of 9, and with many expecting that they would manage to achieve another majority on the strength of their performance in the constituencies alone.

Indeed the SNP managed to improve on their 45.4% share of the constituency vote in 2011, with 46.5% this year. Moreover, Labour dropped from 31.7% in 2011 to 22.6%. This represents a Lab to SNP swing of 5%, which should have been enough for them to take 13 seats from Labour. That number, on top of the 53 constituencies they won in 2011 would have yielded the SNP 66 constituencies on a uniform swing, a majority of 3 before looking at the regional list seats.

What went wrong for the SNP then? Continue reading How did the SNP lose their majority in Scotland? →