Forecast update: 4 July 2014

Forecast b 140704

Date of forecast: 4 July 2014
Days till the election: 307

Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 32%
Lab: 35%
LD: 8%
Others: 25%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.6% (±7.7, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 31.3% (±5.8, i.e. 25% – 37%)
LD: 12.1% (±8.8, i.e. 3% – 21%)
Implied point estimate shares for Others: 19.9%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 305 (221 – 401)
Lab: 288 (198 – 366)
LD: 28 (23 – 36)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 21

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 57%
– Con majority: 32%
Lab largest: 43%
– Lab majority: 20%
Hung Parliament: 49%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 23%

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