Forecast update: 11 July 2014

Forecast b 140711

Date of forecast: 11 July 2014
Days till the election: 300

Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 31%
Lab: 36%
LD: 9%
Others (inc. UKIP): 24%
– UKIP: 14%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.9% (±7.7, i.e. 27% – 43%)
Lab: 31.9% (±5.7, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 12.8% (±8.6, i.e. 4% – 21%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.4%
– UKIP: 11.9%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Lab: 296 (207 – 372)
Con: 295 (213 – 389)
LD: 31 (25 – 38)

Central forecast: Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 30

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Lab largest: 51%
… with a majority: 25%
Con largest: 49%
… with a majority: 24%
Hung Parliament: 52%
… with Lab largest: 26%
… with Con largest: 26%

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