After falling to their worst forecast yet last week, the Tories have recovered to retake the lead, although it’s still looking very close.

This week’s average is the first to include the post-Tory conference polls, and sees them move up 1 point to 32%, while Labour drop 2 to 34%. There was some sign of a bounce for the Tories following Cameron’s speech, but it seems to have died away since. Still, Labour’s 2-point lead is one of the smallest we’ve seen since early 2012.

The Tories’ chances of winning the most seats in May are back up to 53% (from 41% last week), while Labour’s are down to 47% (from 59%). The likelihood of a Hung Parliament continues to rise, to 54% this week – the highest since our forecast began 12 months ago.

Our central forecast is for the Tories to win 299 seats to Labour’s 293, leaving them 27 seats short of a majority (with the Lib Dems winning 28).

Following the Clacton by-election, our model now forecasts UKIP to hold that seat at the General Election (included in the ‘others’ total on our chart). However – on semi-uniform changes – it doesn’t have them down to win any others (though in reality they could get a handful).

Date of forecast: 10 October 2014
Days till the election: 209

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 34%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 15%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.8% (±7.0, i.e. 28% – 42%)
Lab: 31.3% (±5.3, i.e. 26% – 37%)
LD: 11.3% (±7.4, i.e. 4% – 19%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 22.6%
– UKIP: 13.0%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 299 (223 – 385)
Lab: 293 (212 – 364)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 27

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 53%
… with a majority: 25%
Lab largest: 47%
… with a majority: 21%
Hung Parliament: 54%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 27%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)