Forecast update: 24 October 2014

Forecast b 141024

For the fourth straight week, the favourite has changed in our forecast. Having fallen behind Labour last week, the Tories have retaken a slight lead, with a 51% chance of winning the most seats to Labour’s 49%.

The chances of a hung parliament have dropped slightly since last week’s high of 57%, but it’s still a bit more likely than either party securing a majority, with a 55% chance.

The Tories have gained a point in our polling average, to 32%, while UKIP and the Lib Dems have lost a point each and Labour remains on 34% for the third week running.

As a result, our central forecast now has the Conservatives winning 34.6% of the vote to Labour’s 31.4%, enough to give David Cameron’s party just three seats more than Ed Miliband’s: 298 to 295. In that hung parliament scenario, the Tories would be 28 seats short of a majority – which is also the number of seats the Lib Dems are forecast to win.

 

Date of forecast: 24 October 2014
Days till the election: 195

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 34%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 16%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.7% (±6.9, i.e. 28% – 42%)
Lab: 31.4% (±5.2, i.e. 26% – 37%)
LD: 11.2% (±7.2, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 22.7%
– UKIP: 14.0%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 298 (223 – 382)
Lab: 295 (214 – 365)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 28

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 51%
… with a majority: 24%
Lab largest: 49%
… with a majority: 21%
Hung Parliament: 55%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 27%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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3 thoughts on “Forecast update: 24 October 2014”

  1. Once again theses polls are not telling the who truth and certain areas, will act different. You on course to make this page useless…

    In Scotland Recent polls give the SNP 45 seats, this would mean Labour would never get near 290 more like 250 at most It also claims Torys could win two seats.

    Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, the swings which are going about come make it harder for the torys to win either since both have around 36% polling at the last election.

    I do know of around dozen seats which could swing to UKIP.

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