Forecast update: 7 November 2014

Forecast b 141107

Little change in the polling average this week: Labour continue to hold a slim one-point lead over the Tories, 33% to 32%. What movement there is comes further down the order, with UKIP dropping a point to 15% and the Liberal Democrats gaining one to 8%.

That small improvement for the Lib Dems translates into them holding onto an extra two seats in our central forecast (for a total of 28, up from 26 last week), and knocks two off the Tories’ total (300, down from 302). That’d leave the Tories as the largest party, with 9 seats more than Labour on 291, but 26 short of a majority.

The effect is to slightly reduce the chances of a Tory majority (from 27% last week to 25% now) and slightly increase the chances of a Hung Parliament (up from 54% to 56%). The Tories are still the favourites to win the most seats, with a 54% chance to Labour’s 46% (compared to 55%-45% last week).

 

Date of forecast: 7 November 2014
Days till the election: 181

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 27%
– UKIP: 15%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.6% (±6.8, i.e. 28% – 41%)
Lab: 30.8% (±5.1, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 11.1% (±7.0, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 23.5%
– UKIP: 13.1%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 300 (226 – 384)
Lab: 291 (212 – 361)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 26

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54%
… with a majority: 25%
Lab largest: 46%
… with a majority: 19%
Hung Parliament: 56%
… with Con largest: 29%
… with Lab largest: 27%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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