Forecast update: 19 December 2014

Forecast b 141219

The Lib Dems move up a point (to 9%) and UKIP down one (to 15%) in our polling average this week, while Labour and the Conservatives stay on 33% and 31% respectively.

With just 20 weeks to polling day and still lagging two points behind Labour, the Tories are running our of time to turn things around. Our model now puts their chances of securing a majority at just 16% – the lowest since we starting forecasting last year.

For the third week in a row, Labour are the slight favourites to win the most seats. Their chances of doing so are up slightly, from 54% last week to 55% now.

It still looks like being a very close election: the likelihood of a Hung Parliament is also up again, to 60% – its highest yet.

Our central forecast is for a Hung Parliament where Labour are the largest party, with 299 seats to the Conservatives 289. The Lib Dems’ 31 seats in this scenario would be enough for a Lab-Lib Dem Coalition to command a slim majority, but not a Con-Lib Dem one.

That’s our last forecast update of 2014. We wish you all a merry Christmas, and will be back with a new update on Friday, 9th January 2015.

 

Date of forecast: 19 December 2014
Days till the election: 139

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 31%
Lab: 33%
LD: 9%
Others (inc. UKIP): 27%
– UKIP: 15%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 33.4% (±6.6, i.e. 27% – 40%)
Lab: 31.0% (±4.9, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 11.5% (±6.3, i.e. 5% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 24.1%
– UKIP: 13.4%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 289 (219 – 369)
Lab: 299 (223 – 365)
LD: 31 (26 – 37)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 27

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 45%
… with a majority: 16%
Lab largest: 55%
… with a majority: 24%
Hung Parliament: 60%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 32%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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5 thoughts on “Forecast update: 19 December 2014”

  1. Yes, it seems that a very successful result for the SNP in Scotland, as predicted by Scottish polls, would sweep away a lot of Labour seats and seriously dent any chance that Labour has of forming a government at Westminster next spring. The Daily Mail predicts (today) that Labour could be left with as few as 3 seats in Scotland after next April, so this very important point needs to be taken into account when making national predictions.

    Probably this, and the fact that such a small number of people want to see Miliband as PM, account for the odds on Cameron remaining as Prime Minister after the next general election (as quoted by the bookmakers) firming considerably in the last couple of weeks. The 5 bookies listed on Oddschecker all now give Cameron a healthy lead (over Miliband) whereas Miliband was the bookies’ favourite for most of the year.

  2. Remember SNP has ruled out going anywhere near the Tories or propping them up in ANY DEALS. It means we could see SNP/Labour government. As the snp have said well it works both ways…

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