Forecast update: 24 April 2015

Forecast main 150424

With less than two weeks to go, Labour and the Tories are still tied in our polling average, but they’ve both dropped a point since Tuesday, to 33% each.

The result is that the Tories are down two seats in our central forecast – it now has them winning 286 to Labour’s 263. The beneficiaries are the Lib Dems, up two seats to 26.

The chances of a hung parliament are therefore up again, to 92%, as the likelihood of a Tory majority has fallen to 7%.

 

Date of forecast: 24 April 2015
Days till the election: 13

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 33%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 12%

Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34% (30% – 38%)
Lab: 32% (28% – 36%)
LD: 10% (6% – 14%)
UKIP: 13% (9% – 17%)
Others: 11% (10% – 13%)

Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 47% (43% – 51%)
Labour: 28% (24% – 32%)

Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 286 (245 – 328)
Lab: 263 (222 – 301)
LD: 26 (17 – 34)
SNP: 51 (42 – 57)
PC: 3 (2 – 3)
UKIP: 4
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities.)

Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 37
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)

Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 71%
Lab most votes: 29%

Con most seats: 67%
Lab most seats: 33%

Hung Parliament: 92%
… with Con largest: 60%
… with Lab largest: 32%

Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)

Con majority: 7%
Con+DUP: 6%
Con+LD: 17%
Con+LD+DUP: 14%
Con largest, Con+LD+DUP+UKIP or Lab+SNP+LD maj: 7%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP+LD maj: 11%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP maj: 4%
Lab largest, Lab+SNP maj: 8%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 8%
Lab+LD+DUP: 7%
Lab+LD: 8%
Lab+DUP: 1%
Lab majority: 0%

(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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