Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks
This is our latest update of our combined EU referendum forecast, updated weekly. There is no real change compared to last week in either the forecast share of the vote or average probability that Remain will win, with a clear consensus for a Remain win. This hides some movement in individual forecasts however, with the predicted probability of a Remain win from betting markets increasing, but decreasing from polls.
| Share of the vote | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| Betting markets | 54.6 | 45.4 |
| Polls | 51.3 | 48.7 |
| Expert forecasts | 56.2 | 43.8 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 54.8 | 45.2 |
| Poll based models | 55.4 | 44.6 |
| Non-poll based models | 52.0 | 48.0 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 54 | 46 |
| Probability that Remain wins | |
|---|---|
| Citizen forecasts | 67.9 |
| Volunteer forecasts | 74.0 |
| Prediction markets | 71.1 |
| Betting markets | 70.3 |
| Polls | 63.9 |
| Poll based models | 75.7 |
| Combined forecast (mean) | 69.3 |
Individual forecasts collected 3rd May 2016. Continue reading UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST
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