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Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

Final combined EU Referendum forecast

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by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This forecast is based on data collected late on 22nd June. Yet again this method suggests Remain is most likely to win but there is a considerable chance that Leave may win. The probability that Remain will win is up from 62.3% on Sunday to 66.5% now. This reflects both better opinion polls in recent days and so polling models more favourable for Remain, and greater market confidence in a status quo victory.
The only component forecast that is less favourable to Remain is the citizen forecasts, and that is because we have restricted our sample to citizen forecasts over the last week. They are noticeably more equivocal.
The forecast share of the vote is once again little changed, with Remain predicted to get 53.3% and Leave 46.7% per cent of the vote.
Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 53.5 46.5 76.7
Prediction markets 73.4
Citizen forecasts  52.0  48.0 55.2
Expert forecasts 55.1 44.9  62.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.0 46.0 74.0
Polls 50.6 49.4 55.6
Poll based models 52.5 47.5 68.5
Non-poll based models 55.6 44.4
Combined forecast (mean) 53.3 46.7 66.5

(Individual forecasts collected on the evening of 22nd June 2016.)

There is another poll due during polling day but that would be unlikely to change our polling average. The markets may change, possibly dramatically during the day if people on the betting and prediction markets are following trends financial markets.

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Final combined EU Referendum forecast →

Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

Updated combined EU Referendum Forecast

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by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official campaigns have resumed.

Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 52.0 48.0 66.5
Prediction markets 65.6
Citizen forecasts  52.0  48.0 62.1
Expert forecasts 55.1 44.9  62.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.3 45.7 71.3
Polls 48.5 51.5 46.0
Poll based models 50.5 49.5 55.0
Non-poll based models 55.6 44.4
Combined forecast (mean) 52.6 47.4 62.3

(Individual forecasts collected on 18th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Updated combined EU Referendum Forecast →

Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

Updated combined EU Referendum forecast

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Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This week’s forecast shows a sharp drop in the probability of a Remain win to 60.6%, down from 67.7% last week. Similarly the forecast share of the vote for Remain has dropped from 53.8% to 52.7%. For the first time, our poll of polls of polls has Leave ahead, and more of the polls under consideration (see below for details) have had Leave ahead than have had Remain ahead. There has been little or no change in the expert forecasts and non-poll based models because of little or no new data. However there have been substantial changes in the betting and prediction markets, largely in response to the opinion polls. Intriguingly the volunteer forecasters at the Good Judgement Project now 72% chance to Remain, more than 10 points higher than the corresponding figure from the prediction markets: the biggest gap between these sources we’ve observed so far.

Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 51.5 48.5 60.7
Prediction markets 60.1
Citizen forecasts  52.0  48.0 64.4
Expert forecasts 55.1 44.9  62.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.2 45.8 72.2
Polls 49.6 50.4 45.7
Poll based models 51.0 49.0 59.0
Non-poll based models 55.6 44.4
Combined forecast (mean) 52.7 47.3 60.6

(Individual forecasts collected on 14th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Updated combined EU Referendum forecast →

Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

Combined EU Referendum forecast update

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Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This week’s forecast shows another drop in the probability of a Remain win, this time to 67.7%. Part of the reason for the drop is the introduction of significant new data sources and methodological changes (detailed below). But it is also true that all of the component methods, including those without methodological changes, have seen drops in the probability of a Remain vote. By contrast the forecast share of the vote for Remain continues to hover around 54% as in previous forecasts.

Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 53.2 46.8 72
Prediction markets 70.6
Citizen forecasts 64.3
Expert forecasts 55.1 44.9  62.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.2 45.8 74.2
Polls 51.1 48.9 59.1
Poll based models 53.5 46.5 72
Non-poll based models 55.6 44.4
Combined forecast (mean) 53.8 46.2 67.7

(Individual forecasts collected on 8th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Combined EU Referendum forecast update →

Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

Updated combined EU Referendum forecast

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Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This week’s forecast shows the probability of a Remain win reduced to 71.9%, down from 76.1% last week. Once again the forecast share of the vote for Remain, at 53.7%, is similar to all our previous combined forecasts.

Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 54.1 45.9 73.7
Prediction markets 73.8
Citizen forecasts 68.4
Expert forecasts 56.0 44.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.3 45.7 76.1
Polls 51.4 48.6 63.6
Poll based models 54.5 45.5 76.0
Non-poll based models 51.8 48.2
Combined forecast (mean) 53.7 46.3 71.9

(Individual forecasts collected in the morning of 1st June 2016.) Continue reading Updated combined EU Referendum forecast →

Combined forecast, EU referendum, Forecast updates

EU referendum Combined Forecast Update

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Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

Our latest forecast based on combining other forecasts shows a big increase in the probability that Remain will win the referendum, from 70.5% last week to 76.1% today. Intriguingly this has only been accompanied by a small increase in the forecast share of the vote for Remain, from 53.8% in the last forecast to 54.3%.

Remain % share Leave % share Probability Remain wins
Betting markets 54.3 45.7 80.2
Prediction markets 79.1
Citizen forecasts 68.0
Expert forecasts 56.0 44.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.3 45.7 76.3
Polls 53.7 46.3 72.7
Poll based models 55.8 44.2 80.7
Non-poll based models 51.8 48.2
Combined forecast (mean) 54.3 45.7 76.1

(Individual forecasts collected in the evening of 24th May 2016.) Continue reading EU referendum Combined Forecast Update →

Combined forecast, Forecast updates

Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast

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Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again very little change in the average forecast share of the vote, the average probability of a Remain win, or in any of the individual components of the forecast.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.4 45.6
Polls 52.1 47.9
Expert forecasts 56.0 44.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.2 45.8
Poll based models 54.6 45.4
Non-poll based models 51.8 48.2
Combined forecast (mean) 53.8 46.2
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 68.2
Volunteer forecasts 73.7
Prediction markets 71.0
Betting markets 73.5
Polls 63.0
Poll based models 73.9
Combined forecast (mean) 70.5

Individual forecasts collected 17th May 2016. Continue reading Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast →