by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.
Remain % share | Leave % share | Probability Remain wins | |
Betting markets | 53.5 | 46.5 | 76.7 |
Prediction markets | 73.4 | ||
Citizen forecasts | 52.0 | 48.0 | 55.2 |
Expert forecasts | 55.1 | 44.9 | 62.0 |
Volunteer forecasts | 54.0 | 46.0 | 74.0 |
Polls | 50.6 | 49.4 | 55.6 |
Poll based models | 52.5 | 47.5 | 68.5 |
Non-poll based models | 55.6 | 44.4 | |
Combined forecast (mean) | 53.3 | 46.7 | 66.5 |
(Individual forecasts collected on the evening of 22nd June 2016.)
There is another poll due during polling day but that would be unlikely to change our polling average. The markets may change, possibly dramatically during the day if people on the betting and prediction markets are following trends financial markets.
METHODOLOGY Continue reading Final combined EU Referendum forecast