by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

(Individual forecasts collected on the evening of 22nd June 2016.)

There is another poll due during polling day but that would be unlikely to change our polling average. The markets may change, possibly dramatically during the day if people on the betting and prediction markets are following trends financial markets.

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Final combined EU Referendum forecast →

by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official campaigns have resumed.

(Individual forecasts collected on 18th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Updated combined EU Referendum Forecast →

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This week’s forecast shows a sharp drop in the probability of a Remain win to 60.6%, down from 67.7% last week. Similarly the forecast share of the vote for Remain has dropped from 53.8% to 52.7%. For the first time, our poll of polls of polls has Leave ahead, and more of the polls under consideration (see below for details) have had Leave ahead than have had Remain ahead. There has been little or no change in the expert forecasts and non-poll based models because of little or no new data. However there have been substantial changes in the betting and prediction markets, largely in response to the opinion polls. Intriguingly the volunteer forecasters at the Good Judgement Project now 72% chance to Remain, more than 10 points higher than the corresponding figure from the prediction markets: the biggest gap between these sources we’ve observed so far.

(Individual forecasts collected on 14th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Updated combined EU Referendum forecast →

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This week’s forecast shows another drop in the probability of a Remain win, this time to 67.7%. Part of the reason for the drop is the introduction of significant new data sources and methodological changes (detailed below). But it is also true that all of the component methods, including those without methodological changes, have seen drops in the probability of a Remain vote. By contrast the forecast share of the vote for Remain continues to hover around 54% as in previous forecasts.

(Individual forecasts collected on 8th June 2016.)

METHODOLOGY Continue reading Combined EU Referendum forecast update →