How did Labour hold up so well in Wales?

by Stephen Fisher

In the Scottish Parliament elections yesterday the SNP lost 6 seats and their majority because their share of the list vote fell by 2 points. They ended up with 49% of the seats from 42% of the vote. Meanwhile, at the Welsh Assembly elections Labour’s vote share dropped by 5.4% points but they lost just one seat, finishing with 48.3% of the seats from just 31.5% of the vote.

Why was the Welsh system so much more generous to Labour than the Scottish system was to the SNP? Continue reading How did Labour hold up so well in Wales?

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How did the SNP lose their majority in Scotland?

by Stephen Fisher.

The SNP went into yesterday’s Scottish Parliament elections defending a majority of 9, and with many expecting that they would manage to achieve another majority on the strength of their performance in the constituencies alone.

Indeed the SNP managed to improve on their 45.4% share of the constituency vote in 2011, with 46.5% this year. Moreover, Labour dropped from 31.7% in 2011 to 22.6%. This represents a Lab to SNP swing of 5%, which should have been enough for them to take 13 seats from Labour. That number, on top of the 53 constituencies they won in 2011 would have yielded the SNP 66 constituencies on a uniform swing, a majority of 3 before looking at the regional list seats.

What went wrong for the SNP then? Continue reading How did the SNP lose their majority in Scotland?

Calculating the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2015 and 2016

by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher

Much of the speculation about what might happen in the English local elections tomorrow has focused on how many seats each party – and especially Labour – could or should gain or lose. Indeed, we can expect many a judgement to be cast on Friday on the basis of this evidence. However, given that these elections are held under first past the post, seats won and lost can be a poor guide to how well a party has done in the ballot box. A party whose vote has fallen less than that of their principal rivals may gain seats even though it has lost votes. A third party whose vote is geographically spread may make a substantial advance in votes yet reap little reward on terms of seats. Meanwhile, even if these issues do not arise, seats won and lost only provide an indication of whether a party has lost or gained ground as compared with when the seats up for grabs were last contested – which (as this year) is usually four years ago. Continue reading Calculating the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2015 and 2016

UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks

This is our latest update of our combined EU referendum forecast, updated weekly. There is no real change compared to last week in either the forecast share of the vote or average probability that Remain will win, with a clear consensus for a Remain win. This hides some movement in individual forecasts however, with the predicted probability of a Remain win from betting markets increasing, but decreasing from polls.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.6 45.4
Polls 51.3 48.7
Expert forecasts 56.2 43.8
Volunteer forecasts 54.8 45.2
Poll based models 55.4 44.6
Non-poll based models 52.0 48.0
Combined forecast (mean) 54 46
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 67.9
Volunteer forecasts 74.0
Prediction markets 71.1
Betting markets 70.3
Polls 63.9
Poll based models 75.7
Combined forecast (mean) 69.3

Individual forecasts collected 3rd May 2016. Continue reading UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST