Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks

This is our latest update of our combined EU referendum forecast, updated weekly. There is no real change compared to last week in either the forecast share of the vote or average probability that Remain will win, with a clear consensus for a Remain win. This hides some movement in individual forecasts however, with the predicted probability of a Remain win from betting markets increasing, but decreasing from polls.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.6 45.4
Polls 51.3 48.7
Expert forecasts 56.2 43.8
Volunteer forecasts 54.8 45.2
Poll based models 55.4 44.6
Non-poll based models 52.0 48.0
Combined forecast (mean) 54 46
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 67.9
Volunteer forecasts 74.0
Prediction markets 71.1
Betting markets 70.3
Polls 63.9
Poll based models 75.7
Combined forecast (mean) 69.3

Individual forecasts collected 3rd May 2016. Continue reading UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST