Category Archives: Forecast updates

Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks.

This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again almost no change in the average forecast share of the vote or the average probability of a Remain win.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.3 45.7
Polls 51.3 48.7
Expert forecasts 56.0 44.0
Volunteer forecasts 54.3 45.7
Poll based models 55.0 45.0
Non-poll based models 52.0 48.0
Combined forecast (mean) 53.8 46.2
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 68.5
Volunteer forecasts 74.0
Prediction markets 69.0
Betting markets 71.8
Polls 62.5
Poll based models 74.9
Combined forecast (mean) 69.8

Individual forecasts collected 10th May 2016. Continue reading Updated Combined EU Referendum Forecast

An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast

by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick.

We have published two previous forecasts of the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, which are based on current vote intention opinion polls for this referendum and on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere. The main ideas behind this approach are set out here. This post offers an update. Continue reading An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast

UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks

This is our latest update of our combined EU referendum forecast, updated weekly. There is no real change compared to last week in either the forecast share of the vote or average probability that Remain will win, with a clear consensus for a Remain win. This hides some movement in individual forecasts however, with the predicted probability of a Remain win from betting markets increasing, but decreasing from polls.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.6 45.4
Polls 51.3 48.7
Expert forecasts 56.2 43.8
Volunteer forecasts 54.8 45.2
Poll based models 55.4 44.6
Non-poll based models 52.0 48.0
Combined forecast (mean) 54 46
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 67.9
Volunteer forecasts 74.0
Prediction markets 71.1
Betting markets 70.3
Polls 63.9
Poll based models 75.7
Combined forecast (mean) 69.3

Individual forecasts collected 3rd May 2016. Continue reading UPDATED COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST

COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST UPDATE

Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks

Last week we launched a combined forecast method, which we will endeavour to update weekly. There is very little change since the last forecast. The average probability that Remain will win has gone up 3 points because all individual forecasts now suggest a higher probability compared to last week, but there is almost no change in the average forecast share of the vote. All methods still show a strong consensus pointing towards a Remain win.

Share of the vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.9 45.1
Polls 52.8 47.2
Expert forecasts 56.2 43.8
Volunteer forecasts 54.6 45.4
Poll based models 55.6 44.4
Non-poll based models 52.0 48.0
Combined forecast (mean) 54.3 45.7
Probability that Remain wins
Citizen forecasts 66.6
Volunteer forecasts 74.4
Prediction markets 72.0
Betting markets 67.2
Polls 68.8
Poll based models 76.4
Combined forecast (mean) 69.8

Individual forecasts collected 26th April. Continue reading COMBINED EU REFERENDUM FORECAST UPDATE

Second forecast for the Brexit referendum

by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick

A month ago we issued our first forecast for the EU membership referendum on 23rd June 2016. Based on an analysis of referendums in the UK and on the EU outside the UK, and on vote intention opinion polls we forecast that Remain had an 87% chance of winning, and that Remain would get 58% of the vote, plus or minus 14. This was in part based on our polling average (excluding Don’t Knows) of 55% for Remain on 11th March.

Our current forecast suggests the contest is a fair bit closer. Our polling average now puts Remain on 52%. We now give Remain a 73% chance of winning and estimate that the Remain share of the vote will be 54% plus or minus 13 points.

The key change here is the drop from 55% to 52% Remain in the polling average. The main reasons for this are as much or more methodological than substantive. Continue reading Second forecast for the Brexit referendum

First Forecast for the Brexit Referendum

By Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick

The UK will have a referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU on 23rd June 2016. We have developed a method for forecasting the outcome based on current vote intention polls and analysis of opinion polls from previous referendums from the UK and across the world. Continue reading First Forecast for the Brexit Referendum