US Elections 2012: Some initial thoughts on the results and polls

The big political story is no change. Obama is still the president, there looks like there will be very little change in the party composition of the Republican held House and Democrat led Senate. Given the polarisation of US parties at the moment, this seems to be a recipe for continued legislative gridlock. The last Congress was the least productive in over 120 years. Continue reading US Elections 2012: Some initial thoughts on the results and polls

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English Local Elections 2012: Who won votes from whom?

This is quite hard to tell the pattern of vote switching from one party to another from the aggregate ward-level data alone because of the well known ecological inference problem, but some insights can be gleaned from the pattern of correlations in the changes in party shares. Continue reading English Local Elections 2012: Who won votes from whom?

Forecasting the 2017 UK General Election