Revised long-range forecasting method for a 2015 British General Election

I have revised my 2015 forecasting methodology. There is a new working paper here. The old one from October 2013 is still here, and there are past blog posts here and here that provide more background. The current forecast is below and will be updated weekly here. Continue reading Revised long-range forecasting method for a 2015 British General Election

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Initial responses to comments so far on the long-range election forecasting post

Thanks for all the various comments on my initial post about long-range forecasting from historical polls and votes relationship.

Here are some initial responses to comments and questions that have been made on Twitter and on the blog. Continue reading Initial responses to comments so far on the long-range election forecasting post

Election analysis and forecasting