Forecast update: 25 July 2014

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There have been a number of eye-catching poll results since our last forecast, ranging from a tie (Populus) to an eight-point Labour lead (Ashcroft). Thrown together, though, the last week’s polls have only moved the UK Polling Report average very slightly: the Tories and Lib Dems are both down 1, with UKIP up 1 and Labour steady on 36%.

Our forecast has also moved very slightly away from the Conservatives and towards Labour. Our central forecast still has the Tories as the largest party, but with just four more seats than Labour (compared to 14 last week).

The two main parties once again have roughly equal chances of winning the most seats: 52% for the Tories to 48% for Labour. And a Hung Parliament is just as likely as either party winning a majority, with a 50% chance.

 

Date of forecast: 25 July 2014
Days till the election: 286

Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 32%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 24%
– UKIP: 13%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.6, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.0% (±5.7, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 12.0% (±8.5, i.e. 3% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 299 (219 – 393)
Lab: 295 (206 – 370)
LD: 28 (22 – 35)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 27

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 52%
… with a majority: 27%
Lab largest: 48%
… with a majority: 23%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 25%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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