Forecast update: 1 August 2014

Forecast b 140801

This week’s polls didn’t move the UK Polling Report average at all, and in turn our forecast is almost entirely unchanged from last week’s.

It’s still very finely-balanced. All four main scenarios — a Conservative majority, a Labour majority, a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party and a Hung Parliament with Labour the largest party — are roughly as likely as each other, with 3/1 odds against each.

Our central forecast remains for the Conservatives to emerge with 299 seats, 27 short of a majority and just 4 ahead of Labour on 295.

The uncertainty in our forecast this far from the election means that any one specific outcome — even the central one — is very unlikely, and therefore not worth focusing on too much. Even so, it’s perhaps interesting to note that this result would mean that a Labour-Lib Dem coalition would not command a majority (though the Speaker, Deputy Speakers and Sinn Fein would probably mean it would have more MPs than the combined opposition benches), and a Tory-Lib Dem coalition would have a very slim majority of just 4.

 

Date of forecast: 1 August 2014
Days till the election: 279

Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 32%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 24%
– UKIP: 13%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.5, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 11.9% (±8.4, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 299 (219 – 391)
Lab: 295 (208 – 370)
LD: 28 (22 – 35)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 27

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 52%
… with a majority: 26%
Lab largest: 48%
… with a majority: 24%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 25%
… with Lab largest: 25%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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