Forecast update: 29 August 2014

Forecast b 140829

No change at the top the polls: the UK Polling Report Average still has Labour and the Conservatives on 36% and 33% respectively. As with the last couple of weeks, that means the Tories’ projected poll share moves down very, very slightly and Labour’s moves up very, very slightly, as another week goes by without the anticipated swing towards David Cameron’s party.

Our central forecast gives the Tories 301 seats (the same as last week), and Labour 294 (one more than last week). That’d mean another Hung Parliament, with the Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority.

There is a little bit of movement further down the polls, with the Lib Dems down 1 to 8% and UKIP up 2 to 14%. That translates into the Lib Dems’ worst forecast since our model launched in October, due to  a combination of their joint-lowest share in the polling average and less time to make up ground. Our central forecast is for them to win just 11.7% of the vote and 26 seats.

Probabilities-wise, our forecast’s pretty much the same as last week, though what change there’s been is perhaps a little counter-intuitive.  The chance of a Conservative majority is up a touch, but so is the chance of a Labour one (though we’re only talking a few tenths of a percentage point). That’s because, with the Lib Dems expected to take fewer votes and seats, the chances of a Hung Parliament are down very slightly, from 51% to 50%.


Date of forecast: 29 August 2014
Days till the election: 251

Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 23%
– UKIP: 14%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.2%
– UKIP: 12.3%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 301 (223 – 391)
Lab: 294 (209 – 367)
LD: 26 (21 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54%
… with a majority: 28%
Lab largest: 46%
… with a majority: 22%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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