Forecast update: 21 November 2014

Forecast b 141121

The Conservatives have pulled level with Labour in the polls, for the first time since the ‘omnishambles’ Budget of March 2012. Our polling average now has both parties on 33% – an improvement of 1 point for the Tories and no change for Labour since last week.

It puts the Tories in their strongest position in our forecast since June. We now give them a 58% chance of winning the most seats, up from 54% last week. Labour’s chances are down from 46% to 42%.

A Hung Parliament is still the most likely outcome, with a 54% chance (down a touch from 56% last week). The Tories’ chances of a majority are up to 29% (from 25%) while Labour’s are down to 17% (from 19%), their lowest since May.

Our central forecast now has the Tories winning 35.2% of the vote, 4.3 points ahead of Labour on 30.9%. That should be enough to give the Tories the most seats (305, to Labour’s 288), but still leave them 21 seats short of a majority.

 

Date of forecast: 21 November 2014
Days till the election: 167

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 33%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 15%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.2% (±6.7, i.e. 29% – 42%)
Lab: 30.9% (±5.0, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 10.9% (±6.8, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 23.0%
– UKIP: 13.3%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 305 (231 – 387)
Lab: 288 (210 – 358)
LD: 26 (22 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 21

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 58%
… with a majority: 29%
Lab largest: 42%
… with a majority: 25%
Hung Parliament: 54%
… with Con largest: 29%
… with Lab largest: 25%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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