Forecast update: 28 November 2014

Forecast b 141128

Another mixed bag of polls this week: cherry-pick your favourite and you can claim anything from a 5-point Labour lead to a 1-point Conservative one. Lump them together in our polling average, though, and the result is a Labour lead of 1.

The Tories have lost the point they gained last week, taking them back down to 32%, while Labour remain on 33% for the fifth week in a row. UKIP are the beneficiaries of the Tory fall, up a point to 16% – perhaps as a result of their second by-election win last Thursday.

In our forecast, that means a small shift from the Tories to Labour. The Conservatives are still the slight favourites to be the largest party in May, but their chances are down from 58% last week to 53% now. Labour’s are up from 42% to 47%.

Our central forecast tightens again: it now has the Tories winning the popular vote by 3.5 points, enough to give them 5 more seats than Labour (298 to 293).

With the forecast tightening and time running out for one party to break ahead, the chances of a Hung Parliament are now up to 57%.

 

Date of forecast: 28 November 2014
Days till the election: 160

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 27%
– UKIP: 16%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.4% (±6.7, i.e. 28% – 41%)
Lab: 30.9% (±5.0, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 10.9% (±6.7, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 23.8%
– UKIP: 14.1%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 298 (226 – 380)
Lab: 293 (216 – 361)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 28

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 53%
… with a majority: 23%
Lab largest: 47%
… with a majority: 20%
Hung Parliament: 57%
… with Con largest: 29%
… with Lab largest: 28%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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3 thoughts on “Forecast update: 28 November 2014”

  1. There was a post by-election effect that seemed to quite pronounced early last week; all polls showed a dip in Tory vote (to Ukip). Was this factored in? It seemed to have disappeared by the end of this week (from Yougov) in particular and was surely an extraordinary factor.

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