by Stephen Fisher.
We’ve had eight Britain wide opinion polls since the election was called. Roughly in order, with the most recent first (and with thanks to Anthony Wells at UKPollingReport.co.uk for the figures and changes since the previous poll) they are:
ICM/ITV, CON 48%(+2), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc), GRN 3%(-1)
Norstat/S Express, CON 42%, LAB 26%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%
ComRes/S Mirror, CON 50%(+4), LAB 25%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 7%(-2), GRN 3%(-1)
YouGov/S Times, CON 48%(nc), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2)
Survation/Mail on S, CON 40%, LAB 29%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%
Opinium/Observer, CON 45%(+7), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 11%(+4), UKIP 9%(-5)
YouGov/Times, CON 48%(+4), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 7%(-3).
ICM/Guardian, CON 46%, LAB 25%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%, GRN 4%
The average of the most recent polls per pollster (the top six above) is
Con 45.5, Lab 26.2, LD 10.8, UKIP 8.0.
The GB share of the vote in 2015 was:
Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
So the implied changes since 2015 are:
Con +7.7, Lab -5.0, LD +2.7, UKIP -4.9
A uniform change projection from these figures, assuming other parties unchanged, gives
Con 386, Lab 179, LD 7, SNP 55, Others 23. A Conservative majority of 122.
But we have also had two polls from Scotland. Again with thanks to Anthony Wells, the headline figures with changes since 2015, are as follows:
Panelbase/S Times – SNP 44%(-6), CON 33%(+18), LAB 13%(-11), LDEM 5%(-3)
Survation/S Post – SNP 43%(-7), CON 28%(+13), LAB 18%(-6), LDEM 9%(+1)
The average of these is
Con 30.5, Lab 15.5, LD 7.0, SNP 43.5.
The Scottish share of the vote last time was
Con 14.9, Lab 24.3, LD 7.5, SNP 50.0
So the changes are:
Con +15.6, Lab -8.8, LD -0.5, SNP -6.5
Not only do these numbers suggest that the Conservatives would take more seats off the SNP in Scotland than in the uniform GB wide projection, but also since the Conservatives are doing much better in Scotland they must be doing a little worse in England and Wales than the GB changes above indicate. Taking both the Scottish and GB polls together implies that the swing since 2015 in England and Wales is, at 5.8, slightly less than the 6.35 figure from the GB polls.
Similarly, since UKIP only got 1.6 per cent of the vote in Scotland in 2015 they cannot have fallen by 4.9 points there. So the GB polls in effect indicate that UKIP are down in England and Wales by more than the GB average. Assuming UKIP have fallen by just one point in Scotland and that Plaid Cymru and Green shares are unchanged, making the necessary adjustments to have uniform change in Scotland separately from England and Wales, yields the following seats projection.
Con 390, Lab 181, LD 9, SNP 47, Others 23. A Conservative majority of 130.
While the projection from the GB only polls suggested the Conservatives would make just one gain in Scotland, the Scottish polls point to eight. The slightly lower swing in England and Wales would appear to have, in effect, cost them only three seats there.
If this differential between Scottish and GB polls persists it suggests that GB wide uniform change projections will slightly understate the implications for the Conservative majority.
Of course much could change in the polls, change may not be uniform across constituencies in many other ways and the polls overall may be out by a substantial margin again. More comment from me on all of these things in due course. In the meantime, Chris Hanretty has an important piece here about how the latest British Election Study data tell us that the Tories are doing particularly well in Labour seats.