There has been a small shift towards Remain in the polls over the last two weeks. Excluding Don’t Knows, our polling average for Remain has moved from 52% on 10th May to 53% now. This figure is based on the most recent polls from each of seven companies: one from each but two from ICM (one by phone and one conducted online). The Remain share has been adjusted down by 2.15 points for telephone polls and up by the same amount for online polls to account for the relatively stable gap between these different methods in the levels of support they tend to give the two sides.
Using the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere, as discussed here, our latest forecast is for Remain to win 55% of the vote in a month’s time. The 95% prediction interval surrounding this estimate has narrowed very slightly to ±12.5 points. So we are forecasting that Remain will win between 43% and 68% of the vote.
Values closer to the middle of this range are more likely. Overall the probability that the Remain vote will be larger than the Leave vote is now 79%, up from 72% two weeks ago.
This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again very little change in the average forecast share of the vote, the average probability of a Remain win, or in any of the individual components of the forecast.
This is the latest of our weekly updates of our combined EU referendum forecast. There is once again almost no change in the average forecast share of the vote or the average probability of a Remain win.
We have published two previous forecasts of the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, which are based on current vote intention opinion polls for this referendum and on the historical experience of referendum polls and referendum outcomes in the UK and on the EU elsewhere. The main ideas behind this approach are set out here. This post offers an update. Continue reading An Update on the Historical Referendums and Polls based Forecast→
This is our latest update of our combined EU referendum forecast, updated weekly. There is no real change compared to last week in either the forecast share of the vote or average probability that Remain will win, with a clear consensus for a Remain win. This hides some movement in individual forecasts however, with the predicted probability of a Remain win from betting markets increasing, but decreasing from polls.
Last week we launched a combined forecast method, which we will endeavour to update weekly. There is very little change since the last forecast. The average probability that Remain will win has gone up 3 points because all individual forecasts now suggest a higher probability compared to last week, but there is almost no change in the average forecast share of the vote. All methods still show a strong consensus pointing towards a Remain win.
A month ago we issued our first forecast for the EU membership referendum on 23rd June 2016. Based on an analysis of referendums in the UK and on the EU outside the UK, and on vote intention opinion polls we forecast that Remain had an 87% chance of winning, and that Remain would get 58% of the vote, plus or minus 14. This was in part based on our polling average (excluding Don’t Knows) of 55% for Remain on 11th March.
Our current forecast suggests the contest is a fair bit closer. Our polling average now puts Remain on 52%. We now give Remain a 73% chance of winning and estimate that the Remain share of the vote will be 54% plus or minus 13 points.
The UK will have a referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU on 23rd June 2016. We have developed a method for forecasting the outcome based on current vote intention polls and analysis of opinion polls from previous referendums from the UK and across the world. Continue reading First Forecast for the Brexit Referendum→
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