Which way would the Lib Dems go?
Our model now gives a 7% chance that the Conservatives will be the largest party but could only form a majority with the support of all of the Lib Dems, the DUP and UKIP. But the Lib Dems would also be able to form a majority with Labour and the SNP. In our central forecast, the Tory-led group would have 325 seats while the Labour-led group would have 338. Continue reading Which way would the Lib Dems go?
Forecast update: 21 April 2015
Arguments and prospects for tactical voting
by Stephen Fisher
It has been reported that David Cameron called for tactical voting in The Sunday Times today (e.g. here and here). He didn’t. What he said was:
“So if you are considering voting Ukip or Lib Dem, I urge you to think of the chaos of a weak Ed Miliband, propped up by Nicola Sturgeon demanding ever more borrowing and more taxes. Only a Conservative vote in your local constituency will keep Ed Miliband and the SNP out and secure Britain’s future.”
This is a blanket call for all UKIP and Lib Dem supporters to vote Tory. Not only is there nothing tactical in this, but the final claim is both false and contrary to the logic of traditional tactical voting. Continue reading Arguments and prospects for tactical voting
