The Conservatives have pulled level with Labour in the polls, for the first time since the ‘omnishambles’ Budget of March 2012. Our polling average now has both parties on 33% – an improvement of 1 point for the Tories and no change for Labour since last week.

It puts the Tories in their strongest position in our forecast since June. We now give them a 58% chance of winning the most seats, up from 54% last week. Labour’s chances are down from 46% to 42%.

A Hung Parliament is still the most likely outcome, with a 54% chance (down a touch from 56% last week). The Tories’ chances of a majority are up to 29% (from 25%) while Labour’s are down to 17% (from 19%), their lowest since May.

Our central forecast now has the Tories winning 35.2% of the vote, 4.3 points ahead of Labour on 30.9%. That should be enough to give the Tories the most seats (305, to Labour’s 288), but still leave them 21 seats short of a majority.

Date of forecast: 21 November 2014
Days till the election: 167

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 33%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 15%

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.2% (±6.7, i.e. 29% – 42%)
Lab: 30.9% (±5.0, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 10.9% (±6.8, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 23.0%
– UKIP: 13.3%

Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 305 (231 – 387)
Lab: 288 (210 – 358)
LD: 26 (22 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)

Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 21

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 58%
… with a majority: 29%
Lab largest: 42%
… with a majority: 25%
Hung Parliament: 54%
… with Con largest: 29%
… with Lab largest: 25%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)