Unraveling the 2014 local election changes in the share of the vote: who suffered most from UKIP?

A naïve glance at the overall changes in the share of the vote since 2010 in the graph below suggests that UKIP’s big gains came as the expense of the biggest losers, the Liberal Democrats. Continue reading Unraveling the 2014 local election changes in the share of the vote: who suffered most from UKIP?

Advertisements

BBC Projected National Share of Vote 2014

The BBC Projected National Share of the vote just announced is Con 29, Lab 31, LD 13, UKIP 17, Others 10.

The PNS is an attempt to estimate what the share of the vote would be if the whole of GB had local elections and if the three main Westminster parties had fielded candidates in all wards, as they do in general elections. For more details see here and here. Continue reading BBC Projected National Share of Vote 2014

Reasons for changing the forecasting model: a response to The Economist

The Economist magazine have published a great article on the difficulties of predicting the next election. It makes lots of good points well and kindly covers my 2015 general election forecasting model. But I was bemused by the line that reads, “Within months he had published a revised model: polls had not adhered to the original one.” Continue reading Reasons for changing the forecasting model: a response to The Economist

How the 2015 general election forecast probabilities have changed thus far and why

The graph below shows how my 2015 general election forecast probabilities have changed since October last year.* The blue line shows the probability that the Conservatives will have the largest number of seats. The corresponding red line for Labour is just the mirror image. Also included in the graph is the probability of a hung parliament. Continue reading How the 2015 general election forecast probabilities have changed thus far and why

A long range forecast for the UKIP share of the vote at the 2015 general election

Previous posts at this blog introduce my long-range general election forecasting model, which is updated on Fridays here.

Thus far I haven’t published a forecast of the UKIP share of vote because the party hasn’t been competing in general elections for long enough to build a proper statistical regression model of the relationship between their support in the polls and their votes at elections, as for the three main parties. Continue reading A long range forecast for the UKIP share of the vote at the 2015 general election

Forecasting the 2017 UK General Election