I’ve just started publishing a forecast from a polls based method for forecasting the next general election here. I’m hoping to update the forecast weekly. Continue reading A long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes
Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year’s local elections Labour suffered at least as much. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year
With 23% on the PNS, and 147 seats, UKIP did shockingly well in this year’s local elections. Why? Continue reading Local Elections 2013: Why did UKIP do so well?
UKIP did extraordinarily well in yesterday’s local elections, securing a projected national share of the vote of 23%. At the time of writing they have won over 120 council seats; much more than predicted but relatively few given the number of votes they won. Continue reading Why didn’t UKIP win so many seats given they got so many votes?
The graph below shows the 2013 Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from the local elections together with previous PNS figures. It shows just how dramatic the change is. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: PNS in historical perspective
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections. Continue reading Local elections vote share (PNS) and general election vote intention
While some ask what local election results tell us about the state of the parties and prospects for the next general election, it is also important to consider how national party popularity affects the fortunes of candidates in local government elections. Local elections are often said to be about local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national level. Continue reading What do the polls tell us about local election results?
After repeating the mantra that local elections are local, the overall performances of the main parties at local elections are often discussed by journalists and others. This commentary tends to focus on the numbers of seats and councils won and lost by each party. But these can be hard to interpret given the very different numbers of seats up for grabs each year and their different profiles at different points in the cycle. Continue reading Local Elections Vote Shares: the BBC PNS and Rallings & Thrasher NEV compared
The big political story is no change. Obama is still the president, there looks like there will be very little change in the party composition of the Republican held House and Democrat led Senate. Given the polarisation of US parties at the moment, this seems to be a recipe for continued legislative gridlock. The last Congress was the least productive in over 120 years. Continue reading US Elections 2012: Some initial thoughts on the results and polls
This is quite hard to tell the pattern of vote switching from one party to another from the aggregate ward-level data alone because of the well known ecological inference problem, but some insights can be gleaned from the pattern of correlations in the changes in party shares. Continue reading English Local Elections 2012: Who won votes from whom?