Last year I published details of a basic model for forecasting the number of local council seats won from national opinion polls here. The basic idea is to estimate change in seats since the last time they were fought (four years ago) as a function of change in the polls over that time. Continue reading Locals seats forecast from national polls 2014
Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year’s local elections Labour suffered at least as much. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year
With 23% on the PNS, and 147 seats, UKIP did shockingly well in this year’s local elections. Why? Continue reading Local Elections 2013: Why did UKIP do so well?
UKIP did extraordinarily well in yesterday’s local elections, securing a projected national share of the vote of 23%. At the time of writing they have won over 120 council seats; much more than predicted but relatively few given the number of votes they won. Continue reading Why didn’t UKIP win so many seats given they got so many votes?
The graph below shows the 2013 Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from the local elections together with previous PNS figures. It shows just how dramatic the change is. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: PNS in historical perspective
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections. Continue reading Local elections vote share (PNS) and general election vote intention
While some ask what local election results tell us about the state of the parties and prospects for the next general election, it is also important to consider how national party popularity affects the fortunes of candidates in local government elections. Local elections are often said to be about local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national level. Continue reading What do the polls tell us about local election results?