Category Archives: Local elections

European elections, General elections, Local elections, Methodology

What do the 2014 European and local election results mean for the opinion polls and next year’s general election?

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Labour emerged narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in both the local and European Parliament elections. I discussed the implications of the local election results in a previous post on Friday. The results of the Euros only came through last night. This post considers the lessons learnt from both elections for the general election, including the likely accuracy of the opinion polls. Continue reading What do the 2014 European and local election results mean for the opinion polls and next year’s general election? →

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Local elections

BBC Projected National Share of Vote 2014

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The BBC Projected National Share of the vote just announced is Con 29, Lab 31, LD 13, UKIP 17, Others 10.

The PNS is an attempt to estimate what the share of the vote would be if the whole of GB had local elections and if the three main Westminster parties had fielded candidates in all wards, as they do in general elections. For more details see here and here. Continue reading BBC Projected National Share of Vote 2014 →

Local elections

Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year

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Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year’s local elections Labour suffered at least as much. Continue reading Local Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories compared with last year →